WIA SOOM Simulators

Ukubika ikhabhoni — uhlu lwegesi yokushisa komhlaba nohlelo lokuncipha Imodeli ephilayo

Wena uphethe ukubalwa kwekhabhoni komkhiqizi ojwayelekile. Njalo ngenyanga imodeli iguqula uphethiloli, kagesi nokuthenga kube amathani e-CO₂-elinganayo ngezinto zokukhipha ezishicilelwe, ibehlukanise ngobubanzi 1, 2 no-3 njengoba i-GHG Protocol yenza, ilandelela ukuthi idatha iphelele kangakanani nokuthi ayiqinisekile kangakanani, bese iqhathanisa izinyanga eziyishumi nambili ezigudlayo nendlela yokuncipha engu-4.2 % ngonyaka kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka wesisekelo. Wena unquma ngokulinganisa, ukubandakanya abahlinzeki, amasatifikethi kagesi avuselelekayo, amakhredithi ekhabhoni namaphrojekthi amane okuncipha anezikhathi zangempela zokulungiswa nesabelomali. Ukulingisa kwemfundo kuphela — hhayi iseluleko sokubala, sokuqinisekisa, somthetho noma sotshalomali.

Okuzofunda

Isilingisi

Isikhathi 0 inyanga
Ukukhishwa okuphelele kule nyanga 0 t CO₂e · Ububanzi 1 (oPhethiloli) 0 · Ububanzi 2, obusekelwe emakethe 0 · Ububanzi 3, impahla ethengiwe 0 · Isikhala endleleni yokuncipha (izinyanga eziyi-12 ezigudlayo) 0.0% · Ukungaqiniseki kohlu (95 %) ±0.0% · Isabelomali esisetshenzisiwe 0% · Ukubuyekezwa konyaka wesisekelo 0Le nyanga · 0 t CO₂e · Ingxenye yobubanzi 3 0%┆ ububanzi 2 obusekelwe endaweni 0 tOkuyiyonke ngemva kwamakhredithi(akusetshenziselwa izinhloso) 0 tUkukhiqiza uma kuqhathaniswa nonyakawesisekelo 100%Ukukhishwa kwenyanga ngomkhiqizo wonyakawesisekelo 0 t± 0.0%✓ Ukubuyekezwa konyaka wesisekelo 0Ukukhishwa okuqongelelwe nendlela(isabelomali sekhabhoni) 0%Amaphrojekthi okunciphaIzinyanga eziyi-12 zokugcina, kt CO₂e0.0 kweqiniso ✓ 0.0%0.0 okuvunyelweIdatha yomsebenzi elinganisiwe 90%Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ngedathaekhethekile yomhlinzeki 0%Isabelomali esisetshenzisiwe 0%○ Ukusebenza kahle250 k€○ I-heat pump2000 k€○ Ilanga1000 k€○ Izimoto800 k€
  • Ububanzi 1 — oPhethiloli abashiswa endaweni
  • Ububanzi 2 — kagesi othengiwe (osekelwe emakethe)
  • Ububanzi 3 — impahla ethengiwe
  • Iphrojekthi ayixhaswanga
  • Iphrojekthi iyakhiwa
  • Iyasebenza

Izilawuli

Imitha engaphansi, amarekhodi kaphethiloli nokuthatha ama-invoyisi esiza ngasinye: ingxenye elinganisiwe yedatha yomsebenzi ikhula ifike ku-95 % phakathi nezinyanga ezimbalwa. 10 k€ ngenyanga.

Abahlinzeki ababandakanyiwe babelana ngedatha yokukhishwa okuyizinga lomkhiqizo (esikhundleni sesilinganiso esisekelwe ekusebenziseni imali) futhi, uma sebeqube izinhloso, banciphisa ukuminyana kwabo. Kubiza u-4 k€ + 50 k€ × ingxenye ngenyanga.

Amasatifikethi okuphawulwa kwamandla enza ingxenye egunyaziwe ibe yizero ebubanzini 2 obusekelwe emakethe. Ububanzi 2 obusekelwe endaweni abushintshi. Cishe u-4 € nge-MWh.

Amakhredithi anciphisa kuphela inombolo “eyiyonke ngemva kwawo”. Ukukhishwa okuphelele nenqubekelaphambili eya enhlosweni akushintshi. Cishe u-15 € ngethani ngalinye.

Ukukhanyisa, ukuvuza komoya osindisiwe, ama-drive esivinini esishintshayo: −10 % kagesi. 250 k€, ilungile ezinyangeni ezingu-2.

Cishe u-100 MWh ngenyanga ngokwesilinganiso, okwengeziwe ehlobo. Inciphisa zombili izindlela zobubanzi 2. 1,000 k€, ilungile ezinyangeni ezingu-6.

Ithatha ingxenye engu-½ yokushisa kwenqubo okushiswa ngegesi (ukusebenza kwe-boiler 0.9 → i-COP ye-heat pump 3): ububanzi 1 obuncane, kagesi omningi. 2,000 k€, ilungile ezinyangeni ezingu-9.

Ithatha indawo yama-80 % ama-van edizili; ama-van kagesi adinga cishe ingxenye yesithathu yamandla. 800 k€, ilungile ezinyangeni ezingu-8.

Izikhombisi

Isikhala endleleni yokuncipha (izinyanga eziyi-12 ezigudlayo)
0.0%
isixwayiso
Ukungaqiniseki kohlu (95 %)
0.0%
kuvamile
Isabelomali esisetshenzisiwe
0%
kuvamile
Ukubuyekezwa konyaka wesisekelo
0
kuvamile
Ukukhishwa okuphelele kule nyanga0 t CO₂e
Ububanzi 1 (oPhethiloli)0 t CO₂e
Ububanzi 2, obusekelwe emakethe0 t CO₂e
Ububanzi 2, obusekelwe endaweni0 t CO₂e
Ububanzi 3, impahla ethengiwe0 t CO₂e
Ingxenye yobubanzi 30 %
Okuyiyonke ngemva kwamakhredithi (akusetshenziselwa izinhloso)0 t CO₂e
Ukukhishwa okuphelele kwezinyanga eziyi-12 ezigudlayo0.0 kt CO₂e
Inani elivunyelwe endleleni kuyo yonke leyo nyanga eyi-120.0 kt CO₂e
Ukukhishwa okuqongelelwe nendlela (isabelomali sekhabhoni)0 %
Ukukhishwa kwenyanga ngomkhiqizo wonyaka wesisekelo0 t CO₂e
Ukukhishwa okubikiwe nokweqiniso kule nyanga0.0 %
Idatha yomsebenzi elinganisiwe90 %
Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ngedatha ekhethekile yomhlinzeki0 %
Imali esetshenzisiwe0 k€
Ukukhiqiza uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka wesisekelo100 %

Isitayela

Isikhala endleleni yokuncipha (izinyanga eziyi-12 ezigudlayo): — %40.0-40.0

Izimo eziphuthumayo

Izinga 1 · Uhlu lokuqala, idatha enezikhala

Inkampani ilungiselela uhlu lwayo lokuqala lwegesi yokushisa komhlaba; lo nyaka uzoba unyaka wesisekelo. Ngama-30 % kuphela okusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli nokukagesi okulinganisiwe — okunye kulinganiselwa kumarekhodi angaphelele, futhi ezinye izindawo nama-invoyisi ngokuqinisekile alahlekile. Impahla ethengiwe ibalwa ngezilinganiso ezisekelwe ekusebenziseni imali. Unyaka wesisekelo ushicilelwa ngemva kwenyanga 12, futhi umsebenzi wokuqala wokuqinisekisa okukhawulelwe uwubuka enyangeni 15. Gwema ukubuyekeza bese unciphisa ukungaqiniseki, ngaphakathi kwesabelomali esingu-1.2 M€.

  • Akukho kubuyekezwa konyaka wesisekelo
  • Ukungaqiniseki kohlu ≤ ±15 % enyangeni 24
  • Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ngaphakathi kwesabelomali

Izinga 2 · Iminyaka yokukhula endleleni engu-1.5 °C

Unyaka wesisekelo usanda kushicilelwa: cishe u-22 kt CO₂e, uhhafu wawo ukushisa kwenqubo okushiswa ngegesi. Wonke kagesi sekumbozwe amasatifikethi avuselelekayo. Incwadi entsha yama-oda izonyusa ukukhiqiza ngo-12 % ngonyaka eminyakeni emibili ezayo, futhi inhloso iphelele: eminyakeni emibili izinyanga eziyishumi nambili ezigudlayo kufanele zibe ngaphansi konyaka wesisekelo ngo-8.4 %, futhi ukukhishwa okuqongelelwe kufanele kuhlale ngaphakathi kwesabelomali sekhabhoni sendlela. Unamandla ka-3 M€. Ilungu lebhodi liphakamisa ukuthenga amakhredithi esikhundleni.

  • Izinyanga eziyi-12 ezigudlayo ziyilingana noma ziphansi kwendlela enyangeni 24
  • Ukukhishwa okuqongelelwe ngaphakathi kwesabelomali sekhabhoni sendlela
  • Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ngaphakathi kwesabelomali

Izinga 3 · Isikhathi esenziwe abahlinzeki

Inkampani ehlanganisa imikhiqizo ethenga iningi lalokho ekuthengisayo: cishe ama-79 % onyaka wayo wesisekelo oshicilelwe (≈ 37 kt CO₂e) yimpahla ethengiwe, ebalwa nge-factor yesilinganiso esisekelwe ekusebenziseni imali; okusele ikakhulukazi igesi yenqubo, iqembu lamaveni kadizili nogesi. Ukuthenga kukhula ngama-6 % ngonyaka kanye nokuthengisa. Inhloso imboza wonke ama-scope: eminyakeni emibili izinyanga eziyishumi nambili ezigudlayo kufanele zibe sendleleni yama-4.2 % ngonyaka nokukhishwa okuqongelelwe kube ngaphakathi kwesabelomali sayo, nokungaqiniseki kube ngaphansi kuka-±20 %. Isabelomali singu-4 M€.

  • Izinyanga eziyi-12 ezigudlayo ziyilingana noma ziphansi kwendlela enyangeni 24
  • Ukukhishwa okuqongelelwe ngaphakathi kwesabelomali sekhabhoni sendlela
  • Ukungaqiniseki kohlu ngaphansi kuka-±20 %
  • Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ngaphakathi kwesabelomali

Isisekelo — imodeli engemuva kwezinombolo

Wonke ubudlelwano isilingisi esibusebenzisayo, nomthombo wabo. Izinto ezihlala zingashintshi ezimakwe njengokuthathelwa yizilinganiso zesibonelo.

Ububanzi 1 — ukukhishwa okuqondile kophethiloli inkampani ewushisayo: umsebenzi × into yokukhipha (amanani ajwayelekile e-IPCC egesi yemvelo nedizili).
S1 = gas [TJ] × 56.1 t/TJ + diesel [TJ] × 74.1 t/TJ[5][1]
Ububanzi 2 bubikwa kabili: obusekelwe endaweni ngento ephakathi yegridi, obusekelwe emakethe ngezinto zikagesi owenziwe inkontileka ngempela — zero kumandla agunyazwe amasatifikethi, ingxube eyinsalela kokunye.
S2_location = MWh × EF_grid; S2_market = MWh × (1 − certificate share) × EF_residual[2][9]Isimo esicatshangelwayo: izinto zegridi nezingxube eziyinsalela, into yokufaka–ukukhipha, izinga lokungaqiniseki, izikhala zohlu lokuqala, impendulo yabahlinzeki, izindleko, amanani nosayizi bamaphrojekthi kuyizinombolo zesibonelo zenkampani ejwayelekile; imithetho yokubala, izinto zikaphethiloli ze-IPCC, ukusabalala kokungaqiniseki nezinga lendlela elingu-4.2 % yilezo ezishicilelwe.
Ububanzi 3, impahla ethengiwe — indlela exubile: idatha ekhethekile yomhlinzeki lapho abahlinzeki beyinikeza, ukusetshenziswa kwemali × into ephakathi yokufaka–ukukhipha kwenye indawo.
S3 = Σ engaged spend × supplier intensity + Σ other spend × EEIO factor (0.40 kg/€)[3][4]Isimo esicatshangelwayo: izinto zegridi nezingxube eziyinsalela, into yokufaka–ukukhipha, izinga lokungaqiniseki, izikhala zohlu lokuqala, impendulo yabahlinzeki, izindleko, amanani nosayizi bamaphrojekthi kuyizinombolo zesibonelo zenkampani ejwayelekile; imithetho yokubala, izinto zikaphethiloli ze-IPCC, ukusabalala kokungaqiniseki nezinga lendlela elingu-4.2 % yilezo ezishicilelwe.
Idatha yomsebenzi elinganisiwe ohlwini lokuqala iyashiya izindawo nama-invoyisi; kuphela ingxenye elinganisiwe iphelele.
reported activity = true × (1 − (1 − q_metered) × gap), gap ~ N(μ, 0.04) per source[1]Isimo esicatshangelwayo: izinto zegridi nezingxube eziyinsalela, into yokufaka–ukukhipha, izinga lokungaqiniseki, izikhala zohlu lokuqala, impendulo yabahlinzeki, izindleko, amanani nosayizi bamaphrojekthi kuyizinombolo zesibonelo zenkampani ejwayelekile; imithetho yokubala, izinto zikaphethiloli ze-IPCC, ukusabalala kokungaqiniseki nezinga lendlela elingu-4.2 % yilezo ezishicilelwe.
Ukungaqiniseki kuhlangana njengasezincwadini ezikhomba ze-IPCC: kokuphindwayo (umsebenzi × into) ngokwesikwele, kokuhlanganisiwe kwemithombo ngokulinganiswa ngosayizi.
U_source = √(U_AD² + U_EF²) (Eq. 3.1); U_total = √Σ(Uᵢ·Eᵢ)² / ΣEᵢ (Eq. 3.2)[6]
Unyaka wesisekelo uyabalwa kabusha uma indlela engcono noma iphutha elitholwe ukuqinisekiswa kuwuhambisa ngo-5 % noma ngaphezulu, ukuze unyaka ngamunye uqhathaniswe ngendlela efanayo.
recalculate base year if |B_today’s method / B_published − 1| ≥ 5 % (annual close, assurance finding)[1][7]
Indlela yokuncipha okuphelele: inani elivunyelwe lehla minyaka yonke ngama-4.2 % onyaka wesisekelo. Isikhala siqhathanisa izinyanga eziyishumi nambili ezedlule naleli nani elivunyelwe, kokubili unyaka wesisekelo naleso sikhathi kufundwa ngendlela yanamuhla (ngendlela efanayo).
allowed(t) = B × (1 − 0.042 · years since base); gap = rolling 12-month gross / allowed − 1 (B and the window both read with today’s method)[8][7]
Izinhloso ziyalinganiswa ngokukhishwa okuphelele. Amakhredithi ekhabhoni ayamenyezelwa ngokwehlukana futhi awabalwa nanini njengokuncipha.
gross = S1 + S2_market + S3 (targets); net = gross − credits retired (shown apart, never counted)[7][9]
Izindleko ezincane zokuncipha zephrojekthi: izindleko zesimali zonyaka kuncishiswe ukonga amandla konyaka, ngethani ngalinye okugwenyiwe. Inani elingelona elihle lisho ukuthi iphrojekthi iyonga imali — ephepheni.
MAC = (capex × CRF(8 %, 15 y) − annual energy savings) / annual t abated; CRF = r(1+r)ⁿ/((1+r)ⁿ − 1)[10][11]Isimo esicatshangelwayo: izinto zegridi nezingxube eziyinsalela, into yokufaka–ukukhipha, izinga lokungaqiniseki, izikhala zohlu lokuqala, impendulo yabahlinzeki, izindleko, amanani nosayizi bamaphrojekthi kuyizinombolo zesibonelo zenkampani ejwayelekile; imithetho yokubala, izinto zikaphethiloli ze-IPCC, ukusabalala kokungaqiniseki nezinga lendlela elingu-4.2 % yilezo ezishicilelwe.
Lokho iphrojekthi ngayinye yokuncipha ekushintshayo kudatha yomsebenzi.
efficiency −10 % electricity · heat pump −50 % gas → + gas × 0.9 × 277.8 / COP 3 MWh · rooftop PV −100 MWh/mo (±40 % seasonal) · fleet −80 % diesel → + diesel × 277.8 / 3 MWh[1]Isimo esicatshangelwayo: izinto zegridi nezingxube eziyinsalela, into yokufaka–ukukhipha, izinga lokungaqiniseki, izikhala zohlu lokuqala, impendulo yabahlinzeki, izindleko, amanani nosayizi bamaphrojekthi kuyizinombolo zesibonelo zenkampani ejwayelekile; imithetho yokubala, izinto zikaphethiloli ze-IPCC, ukusabalala kokungaqiniseki nezinga lendlela elingu-4.2 % yilezo ezishicilelwe.
Ezinye izinto ezingaguquki zokusebenza ezisetshenziswa yimodeli.
grid 0.35 t/MWh, residual mix 0.42 t/MWh · EEIO 0.40 kg/€ · U: metered 2 %, estimated 20 %, grid 10 %, spend-based 50 %, supplier data 15 % · metering → 95 % metered, τ = 3 mo, 10 k€/mo · supplier programme 4 + 50 × share k€/mo, data τ = 6 mo, targets in place after a further τ = 6 mo, then engaged suppliers cut ≈ N(10 %, 1 %)/yr · certificates 4 €/MWh · credits 15 €/t · capex: efficiency 250 k€ (2 mo), PV 1 000 k€ (6 mo), heat pump 2 000 k€ (9 mo), fleet 800 k€ (8 mo) · prices: electricity 150 €/MWh, gas 40 €/MWh, diesel 1.5 €/L · first-inventory gap of estimated data N(μ, 4 %) per source · assurance re-performs the base year with complete activity data · ±3 % monthly activity noise · gas ±20 % seasonalIsimo esicatshangelwayo: izinto zegridi nezingxube eziyinsalela, into yokufaka–ukukhipha, izinga lokungaqiniseki, izikhala zohlu lokuqala, impendulo yabahlinzeki, izindleko, amanani nosayizi bamaphrojekthi kuyizinombolo zesibonelo zenkampani ejwayelekile; imithetho yokubala, izinto zikaphethiloli ze-IPCC, ukusabalala kokungaqiniseki nezinga lendlela elingu-4.2 % yilezo ezishicilelwe.

Ukungahleliwe: i-generator ye-mulberry32 enembewu; ukusabalalisa okusetshenzisiwe — uniform, exponential (inverse CDF), normal (Box–Muller), Poisson (Knuth). Imbewu iyabonisa futhi ingabelwana.

Imithombo

  1. The Greenhouse Gas Protocol — A Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard, Revised Edition (scopes; ch. 5 base-year recalculation for methodology changes and significant errors; ch. 7 inventory quality) — WRI / WBCSD, 2004
  2. GHG Protocol Scope 2 Guidance — location-based and market-based methods, dual reporting, Scope 2 Quality Criteria, residual mix — WRI / WBCSD, 2015
  3. Corporate Value Chain (Scope 3) Accounting and Reporting Standard — WRI / WBCSD, 2011
  4. Technical Guidance for Calculating Scope 3 Emissions, ch. 1 Purchased goods and services (supplier-specific, hybrid, average-data and spend-based methods) — WRI / WBCSD, 2013
  5. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Vol. 2 Energy, ch. 2 Stationary Combustion (Table 2.2: natural gas 56 100 kg CO₂/TJ, gas/diesel oil 74 100 kg CO₂/TJ) — IPCC / IGES, 2006
  6. 2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 1 General Guidance, ch. 3 Uncertainties (Approach 1: Eq. 3.1 products, Eq. 3.2 sums) — IPCC / IGES, 2006
  7. SBTi Corporate Near-Term Criteria V5.3.1 (C8 one consistent scope 2 approach; C11 carbon credits not counted as reductions; 5 % significance threshold for recalculation) — Science Based Targets initiative, 2026
  8. SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard V1.3.1 Method Appendix — linear annual reduction rates, minimum 4.2 % per year (absolute contraction, 1.5 °C) — Science Based Targets initiative, 2026
  9. Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2772 — ESRS E1 Climate change (E1-6 gross scopes 1, 2, 3 with scope 2 location- and market-based; E1-7 removals and carbon credits reported separately) — European Union, Official Journal, 2023
  10. F. Kesicki, P. Ekins — Marginal abatement cost curves: a call for caution — Climate Policy 12(2), 219–236, 2012
  11. Capital recovery factor A/P = r(1+r)ⁿ/((1+r)ⁿ − 1) — standard engineering-economics annuity factor (e.g. W. G. Sullivan et al., Engineering Economy) — Pearson, 2019

Obani abenza lokhu ukuze baziphilise

Imodeli yemfundo — hhayi yezinqumo zokusebenza. Izindawo zangempela zilinganisa yonke into ehlala ingashintshi kumishini nedatha yazo.